2023 Kwara State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Kwara State gubernatorial election will take place on 11 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Kwara State, concurrent with elections to the Kwara State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election will be held two weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. Incumbent APC Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is running for re-election, but is yet to formally announce his candidacy.

2023 Kwara State gubernatorial election
11 March 2023
 
Party APC PDP SDP
Governor before election

AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq
APC

 Elected Governor

TBD
TBD

Electoral system

The governor of Kwara State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Kwara State is a large state in the North Central with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing agricultural underdevelopment, deforestation, and insecurity.[3] The state's 2019 elections had a large swing towards the state APC. Although the APC had won most 2015 elections in Kwara, the vast majority of APC officeholders left the party in 2018 to follow Senator Bukola Saraki into the PDP; despite the Saraki dynasty's longstanding control over Kwaran politics, the APC-led Ó Tó Gẹ́ movement swept the state in 2019. The APC won all three senate seats back and in the process, defeated Saraki by a wide margin. Similarly, the APC gained five PDP-held House seats to sweep all House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC gained the governorship and all but one seat in the House of Assembly. These results, coupled with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari (APC) winning the state with nearly 70%, led to the categorization of the 2019 elections as a seismic shift in the state's politics.

During AbdulRazaq's 2019 campaign, he based pledges on improving government transparency, rehabilitating transportation, and gender inclusivity among others.[4] In terms of his performance, AbdulRazaq was praised for education policy, healthcare investment, appointing Nigeria's first majority-women state cabinet, and social investment programmes.[5][6][7][8] On the other hand, he was criticized for mishandling the demolition of a Saraki family property, alleged ethnic and regional prejudice when making a KWASU appointment, illegally dismissing elected local government chairmen and failing to conduct constitutionally-mandated local government elections, and raising the state debt.[9][10][11][12][13][14]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, will take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022.[2] According to some candidates and community leaders from the Northern district, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kwara North Senatorial District to have the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Kwara governors have come from either the Kwara Central or Kwara South Senatorial Districts.[15] In accordance with these calls, the PDP zoned its nomination to the North but the APC has not closed its primary to non-Northerners and is expected to renominate AbdulRazaq, who is from Ilorin West in Kwara Central.

All Progressives Congress

The year prior to the APC primaries were beset by party infighting between two different party factions, one backed by ministers Lai Mohammed and Gbemisola Ruqayyah Saraki while the other was supported by incumbent Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq.[16][17] The two factions held two separate parallel party congresses in late 2021 but as AbdulRazaq is a serving governor, his faction's congress was recognized as legitimate by the national party.[18][19] In the wake of the decision, a large number of Mohammed-Saraki faction supporters left the APC (mainly joining the Social Democratic Party).[20][21] Although neither Mohammed nor Saraki defected, analysts state that the defections have the potential to hurt the APC in the general election.[22][23] Another point of contention were the calls from Kwara North groups for the governorship to be zoned to their region; to combat those demands, prominent northern APC members like House of Assembly Speaker Yakubu Danladi-Salihu and Senator Suleiman Sadiq Umar held events to back AbdulRazaq's re-election bid.[24]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms are to be sold from 26 April until 6 May; after the submission of nomination forms by 10 May, candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 12 May while 14 May is the date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses and LGA congresses are set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process will advance to a primary set for 18 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result can be made on 20 May.[25][26][27]

Announcement pending

Declined

People's Democratic Party

In December 2021, Kwara PDP Publicity Secretary Tunde Asholu announced that the party had zoned their gubernatorial nomination to Kwara North Senatorial District.[31] A few months later, former Senate President Bukola Saraki (the de facto leader of the Kwara PDP) announced that the party nomination would be further micro-zoned to Edu, Moro, and Pategi LGAs; Saraki also announced that the candidates had agreed to use the consensus method for the gubernatorial primary.[32] The former was controversial as the only Governor to ever come from the Northern district, Mohammed Shaaba Lafiagi, is from Edu and thus micro-zoning to the same area instead of Baruten and Kaiama LGAs was unpopular in those LGAs leading to extensive internal PDP strife; the controversy was compounded by an ethnic element as the Edu-Moro-Pategi area is majority-Nupe while Baruten and Kaiama are majority Baatonu and Bokobaru, respectively.[33][34][35][36] On the other hand, the consensus method was reaffirmed unanimously by the candidates on 13 April 2022 after a meeting with Saraki at his Abuja home.[37]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May is the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses are set for 29 April and LGA congresses are set for 5 May to elect delegates for the primary.[38] Candidates approved by the screening process will advance to a primary set for 21 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result can be made on 24 May.[39][40]

Declared

Potential

Declined

Social Democratic Party

In early 2022, large groups of APC members defected to the SDP after the APC internal party crisis.[47][48] After welcoming the new members, Kwara SDP leadership expressed confidence over the party's prospects in the general election;[49] however as the primary neared, zoning became an internal issue as Kwara North groups demanded the nomination be zoned to the North.[50]

The national SDP set its gubernatorial expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and its nomination form price at ₦15 million with a 50% discount for youth and free forms for women and candidates with disabilities.[51]

Declared

See also

References
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  5. "TOP 5, BOTTOM 5: How Nigerian governors ranked in July, 2020". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 April 2022. The Kwara State Governor, Abdulrazaq Abdulrahman, makes the top 5 for initiating an intervention programme to lift some of the burdens confronting stakeholders in the educational sector, especially proprietors and teachers in private schools
  6. "ICYMI: Top 5, Bottom 5; How first term Governors fared in their first year (May, 2020)". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 April 2022. In the education sector, payment of relevant counterpart funds has brought back development partners, and taken the state off Universal Basic Education Commission's (UBEC) blacklist. The initiative has set the state on the path of reviving a once moribund sector. Huge investments in the health sector have seen the state resuscitate its long-dead oxygen plant, making her to be self-sufficient, with a possibility of commercializing the venture to boost internally generated revenue.
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  8. "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, SEPTEMBER, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. 2 October 2019. Retrieved 18 April 2022. We are attracted by his institutionalized concern to lift the masses from poverty through Executive bills and orders in respect of social investment programmes.
  9. "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, JANUARY, 2020: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 April 2022. Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq makes the bottom five in January, 2020 for his shoddy handling of the crisis surrounding 'Ile Arugbo', allegedly belonging to the Saraki family.
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