2022 Osun State gubernatorial election

The 2022 Osun State gubernatorial election will take place on July 16, 2022,[1] to elect the governor of Osun State. Incumbent APC Governor Gboyega Oyetola is eligible for reelection and has been renominated by his party.[2]

2022 Osun State gubernatorial election

July 16, 2022[1]
 
Nominee Gboyega Oyetola Ademola Adeleke
Party APC PDP

Governor before election

Gboyega Oyetola
APC

Elected Governor

TBD
TBD

The primaries, scheduled for between February 16 and March 12, resulted in Oyetola winning the APC nomination for a second time, albeit amid outcry from his primary challengers. For the main opposition PDP, longtime internal disputes led to two parallel primaries being held as a faction nominated former senatorial candidate Dotun Babayemi while the faction recognized by the national PDP nominated former Senator for Osun West Ademola Adeleke, the party's 2018 nominee. As the Independent National Electoral Commission only observed the primary that nominated Adeleke, he is listed as the PDP nominee.

Electoral system

The governor of Osun State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Osun State is a small, Yoruba-majority southwestern state with vast natural areas and rich cultural heritage but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector and high debt.

Politically, Oyetola's close 2018 victory was a forerunner of the state's competitiveness in the 2019 elections with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari barely winning the state back and all three Senate races being fairly close. Of the Senate elections, two seats went to the APC and one went to the PDP while the House of Representatives elections went 6 APC and 3 PDP. Contrastly, the APC won a large majority in the State House of Assembly.

At the beginning of Oyetola's term, his promises included completing in-progress projects, full payment of civil servant salaries, and further developing his predecessor's welfare programs.[3][4] In terms of his performance, Oyetola was commended for mining development but was criticized for declaring numerous public holidays and failing to pay pensions.[5][6][7] Oyetola also came under pressure when the Pandora Papers revealed that he had bought a London mansion from an international fugitive wanted for money laundering using a British Virgin Islands-based offshore company as Nigerian authorities were attempting to freeze the fugitive's assets.[8]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, are scheduled for between February 16 and March 12.[1]

All Progressives Congress

Although there were rumors of a rift between Governor Oyetola and former Governor Rauf Aregbesola that could lead to Oyetola failing to be renominated,[9][10] Osun APC Chairman Gboyega Famodun claimed that Oyetola was widely accepted throughout the state and local APC chapters and thus would have the support of the state party.[11] However, the Osun State APC later factionalized between the Oyetola-aligned IleriOluwa faction (chaired by Famodun) and the Aregbesola-aligned The Osun Progressives faction (chaired by Rasaq Salinsile).[12][13] Despite outside attempts at reconciliation, the party crisis deepened by January 2022 and the threat of two parallel primaries loomed as Oyetola registered to run in the IleriOluwa APC while challengers registered to run in the TOP APC.[14] Eventually, the IleriOluwa faction was recognized by the national APC and the primary continued within it as Aregbesola endorsed challenger Moshood Adeoti while Oyetola began his campaign for a second term.[15]

In January 2022, the APC rescheduled its primary for February 19 with the expression of interest form costing ₦2.5 million and the nomination form costing ₦20 million; a 50% discount would be provided to women candidates and candidates with disabilities. The party also rescheduled its candidate screening and screening appeal process for February 10 and 15, respectively.[16] Different dates had been announced in November but the dates were changed after national revision.[17][18]

In the days before the election, the Oyetola-Aregbesola feud escalated after Aregbesola formally endorsed Adeoti on February 14. Aregbesola then claimed that his convoy was attacked later that day in an assassination attempt while the police and Oyetola administration claimed that Aregbesola's guards shot into the air without any provocation.[19] The next day, Aregbesola allies claimed that they had uncovered a new plot to kill Aregbesola by "state government-sponsored political thugs," thus indirectly accusing Oyetola of organizing the assassination plots.[20] These incidents lead to fears that the primary could be marred by violence despite the increased security presence during the exercise.[21] Thankfully, the practice was mainly peaceful, albeit with one person being shot dead over a non-election related dispute according to police.[22] In the early morning of February 20, head of the primary committee and Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq declared Oyetola as the APC nominee after announced results showed him defeating Adeoti and former House Deputy Speaker Yusuf Sulaimon Lasun by over 200,000 votes with 60% turnout.[2] Before the results were even announced, Adeoti and his allies rejected the primary wholeheartedly with his supporters claiming that their names were purposefully left off registers, others observing that INEC officials were absent from units, and Aregbesola calling the primary a "sham of an election."[23] For their part, Oyetola supporters backed the exercise's fairness and Oyetola himself called for party unity the day after the primary.[24][25] Prior to taking outside legal action, Adeoti appealed to the APC primary election appeal committee which denied his appeal;[26] accordingly, Adeoti then asked a Federal High Court in Abuja to declare him winner.[27]

Nominated

Defeated in primary

Declined

Results

APC primary results[2][32][33]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Gboyega Oyetola 222,169 94.32%
APC Moshood Adeoti 12,921 5.48%
APC Yusuf Sulaimon Lasun 460 0.20%
Total votes 235,550 100.00
Turnout 247,207 58.77%
By local government area
LGA Oyetola Adeoti Lasun Total Votes
# % # % # % #
Aiyedaade 3,615 87.00% 540 13.00% 0 0.00% 4,155
Aiyedire 3,274 92.07% 279 7.85% 3 0.08% 3,556
Atakunmosa East 2,637 94.04% 165 5.89% 2 0.07% 2,804
Atakunmosa West 4,655 93.72% 305 6.14% 7 0.14% 4,967
Boluwaduro 6,399 99.04% 62 0.96% 0 0.00% 6,461
Boripe 15,034 99.97% 5 0.03% 0 0.00% 15,039
Ede North 7,117 95.79% 311 4.21% 0 0.00% 7,430
Ede South 2,664 80.92% 628 19.08% 0 0.00% 3,292
Egbedore 5,500 92.91% 420 7.09% 0 0.00% 5,920
Ejigbo 8,007 95.70% 360 4.30% 0 0.00% 8,367
Ife Central 10,843 96.92% 344 3.07% 1 0.01% 11,188
Ife East 12,030 97.36% 326 2.64% 0 0.00% 12,356
Ife North 3,377 93.18% 242 6.68% 5 0.14% 3,624
Ife South 8,268 99.48% 43 0.52% 0 0.00% 8,311
Ifedayo 4,214 96.76% 141 3.24% 0 0.00% 4,355
Ifelodun 11,873 94.75% 631 5.03% 27 0.22% 12,531
Ila 8,834 99.47% 47 0.53% 0 0.00% 8,881
Ilesa East 4,857 90.94% 483 9.04% 1 0.02% 5341
Ilesa West 3,877 89.68% 446 10.32% 0 0.00% 4,323
Irepodun 7,928 89.34% 732 8.25% 214 2.41% 8,874
Irewole 7,560 93.37% 537 6.63% 0 0.00% 8,097
Isokan 6,468 95.68% 279 4.13% 13 0.19% 6,760
Iwo 9,432 78.76% 2,543 21.23% 1 0.01% 11,976
Obokun 5,245 90.84% 527 9.13% 2 0.03% 5,774
Odo Otin 7,035 86.65% 384 13.35% 0 0.00% 8,119
Ola Oluwa 3,771 91.22% 363 8.78% 0 0.00% 4,134
Olorunda 7,103 92.74% 555 7.25% 1 0.01% 7,659
Oriade 10,935 96.05% 438 3.85% 11 0.10% 11,384
Orolu 6,652 98.08% 130 1.92% 0 0.00% 6,782
Osogbo 22,265 96.43% 655 2.84% 170 0.74% 23,090
Totals 222,169 94.32% 12,921 5.48% 460 0.20% 235,550

People's Democratic Party

By 2021, Ademola Adeleke, the 2018 PDP nominee, had already received the support of the national PDP with party officials claiming he has effectively been given the nomination according to PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary Duran Odeyemi.[34] However, the state PDP claimed that while "the majority of our party stakeholders" were supporting Adeleke, all contenders were allowed to run in the primary. This assessment became contested as the state party later factionalized between the Adeleke-supporting faction (chaired by Sunday Bisi) and the faction aligned with the other five candidates (chaired by Wale Ojo).[13] Another internal battle was sparked in January 2022 when a dispute between Ademola and Dele Adeleke—both members of the powerful Adeleke political family of Ede—escalated and tied in popular musician Davido, cousin of Dele and nephew of Ademola, who has supported Ademola since 2018 and attacked Dele on social media.[35]

In November 2021, the PDP announced that its primary will be held on March 7, 2022 with the sale of the expression of interest and nomination forms being held between November 22 and December 10. On January 8, the PDP rescheduled its candidate screening from January 11 to January 12 with the screening appeal process remaining scheduled for January 26; all six candidates were approved by the committee.[36][37][38] The primary date was later pushed back to March 8.[39]

In the weeks ahead of the primaries, contentious ward congresses to elect delegates for the primary left two people dead and led to fear of continued violence between the Bisi and Ojo factions during the primary itself.[40][41][42] The primary was shaping to primarily be a rematch of the 2018 primary between Ademola Adeleke and Akin Ogunbiyi until Ogunbiyi withdrew on 7 March citing alleged bias from the national party in favour of A. Adeleke; on the same day Sanya Omirin, Dele Adeleke, and Fatai Akinade Akinbade also dropped out leaving just Dotun Babayemi and A. Adeleke in the race.[43][44][45] On the morning of the primary, two parallel primaries held with the Ojo-led faction holding a primary at the Women and Children Development Initiative Foundation (WOCDIF) Centre while the Bisi-led faction (backed by the national PDP) held its primary at the Osogbo City Stadium.[46] After both primaries were peacefully held, the WOCDIF Centre primary ended in Babayemi winning by a wide margin while the Stadium primary resulted in a large win for Ademola Adeleke.[47] The national party-appointed returning officer, Bayelsa Deputy Governor Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo, presided over the Stadium primary and dismissed the WOCDIF Centre primary as "invalid" while former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola backed the WOCDIF Centre primary.[48] The PDP national headquarters gave Adeleke the certificate of return on March 10 but Babayemi stated that the decision was "not the end of journey."[49][50] As the Independent National Electoral Commission only observed the primary that nominated Adeleke, he was listed as the legitimate PDP nominee.[28]

Nominated

Defeated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

PDP Stadium primary results[52]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Ademola Adeleke 1,887 99.74%
PDP Sanya Omirin (withdrawn) 4 0.21%
PDP Dele Adeleke (withdrawn) 1 0.05%
PDP Fatai Akinade Akinbade (withdrawn) 0 0.00%
PDP Dotun Babayemi 0 0.00%
PDP Akin Ogunbiyi (withdrawn) 0 0.00%
Total votes 1,892 100.0
Invalid WOCDIF Centre primary results
PDP WOCDIF Centre primary results[53]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Dotun Babayemi 1,781 94.73%
PDP Dele Adeleke (withdrawn) 32 1.70%
PDP Fatai Akinade Akinbade (withdrawn) 28 1.49%
PDP Akin Ogunbiyi (withdrawn) 23 1.22%
PDP Sanya Omirin (withdrawn) 16 0.85%
PDP Ademola Adeleke 0 0.00%
Total votes 1,880 100.0

Nominees

Campaign

After the primaries confirmed that the general election would be a rematch of 2018 between Oyetola (APC) and Adeleke (PDP), analysts contended that the election would be shaped by what each camp had done since 2018 as the power struggle between the two continued. For both, the early parts of the general election campaign were dominated by attempts to address controversies around their respective primaries as the contentious primaries were identified as a key potential problem for their campaign. However, several of both's intraparty opponents remained disgruntled leading one of Oyetola's primary challengers (Yusuf Sulaimon Lasun) to leave the APC entirely to run under the LP while one of Adeleke's primary opponents (Akin Ogunbiyi) defected to become Accord flagbearer.[58][59][60]

General election

2022 Osun State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
A Akin Ogunbiyi
AAC Peter Segun Awojide
ADP Kehinde Munirudeen Atanda
APC Gboyega Oyetola
APM Awoyemi Oluwatayo Lukuman
APP Adebayo Adeolu Elisha
LP Yusuf Sulaimon Lasun
NNPP Rasaq Oyelami Saliu
NRM Samuel Adetona Abede
PDP Ademola Adeleke
PRP Busuyi Ayowole
SDP Omigbodun Akinrinola Oyegoke
YPP Ademola Bayonle Adeseye
ZLP John Olufemi Adesuyi
Total votes 100.0%
Turnout

See also

References

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  6. "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, AUGUST, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 23 March 2022. Though the governor has the power to declare public holidays in his state, it is, however, doubtful if these holidays hold any immediate or long term economic, social or political impact on the people of the state...Governor Oyetola will do well by dedicating himself much more to policies and actions that will lift the lot of the improverished [sic] ordinary people of the state and not continue in the current public holidays jamboree, hurting the state’s economy further!
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