2016 Washington gubernatorial election

2016 Washington gubernatorial election
	November 8, 2016
	County results ; Inslee: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%; Bryant: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
Governor before election; Jay Inslee; Democratic	Elected Governor ; Jay Inslee; Democratic

The 2016 Washington gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016.

Under Washington's top-two primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, residents voted for one of several candidates from a range of party affiliations. The top two finishers, incumbent governor Jay Inslee (Democratic)[1] and Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant (Republican), moved on to the November general election, which Inslee won. As of 2022, this was the last gubernatorial election in Washington in which the margin of victory was within single digits.

Background

Democratic governor Christine Gregoire declined to seek a third term in 2012. Democratic former U.S. Representative Jay Inslee was elected to succeed her, defeating Republican Rob McKenna, the outgoing Attorney General of Washington, by 51.4% to 48.3%. The last Republican to hold the office of governor was John Spellman in 1985, meaning that Washington has the second longest period (South Dakota has not had a Democratic governor since 1979) of one-party statehouse rule in America.[2]

Primary election

Declared

James Robert Deal[3]
Johnathan Dodds[3]
Jay Inslee, incumbent governor
Patrick O'Rourke[3]

Declared

Bill Bryant, former Seattle Port Commissioner[4]
Goodspaceguy, perennial candidate[3]
Bill Hirt[3]

Declined

Andy Hill, state senator[5]
Steve Litzow, state senator (running for reelection)[5]
Rob McKenna, former Attorney General of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012[6][7]
Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative for Washington's 8th congressional district (running for reelection)[8]

Declared

David Blomstrom (Fifth Republic)[3]
Christian Joubert (Holistic)[3]
Mary Martin (Socialist Workers)[3]
Steve Rubenstein (Independent)

Declined

Randy Dorn, State Superintendent of Public Instruction[9]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Bill Bryant (R)	Randy Dorn (I)	Undecided
Elway Poll	April 14–17, 2016	503	± 3.5%	41%	26%	7%	25%

Results

Results by county:

Inslee—40–50%

Inslee—60–70%

Bryant—30–40%

Bryant—40–50%

Bryant—50–60%

Bryant—60–70%

Blanket primary election results[10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jay Inslee (incumbent)	687,412	49.30
	Republican	Bill Bryant	534,519	38.33
	Republican	Bill Hirt	48,382	3.47
	Democratic	Patrick O'Rourke	40,572	2.91
	Independent	Steve Rubenstein	22,582	1.62
	Democratic	James Robert Deal	14,623	1.05
	Democratic	Johnathan Dodds	14,152	1.01
	Republican	Goodspaceguy	13,191	0.95
	Socialist Workers	Mary Martin	10,374	0.74
	Independent	David Blomstrom	4,512	0.32
	Independent	Christian Joubert	4,103	0.29
Total votes			1,394,422	100

General election

Debates

Complete video of debate, October 19, 2016 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[11]	Safe D	August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[12]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[13]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[15]	Lean D	November 1, 2016
Governing[16]	Likely D	November 7, 2016

Endorsements

Jay Inslee (D)

U.S Presidents

Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[17]

Newspapers

Bill Bryant (R)

U.S. Senators

Slade Gorton, former U.S. Senator from Washington[22]

U.S. Representatives

Sid Morrison, former U.S. Representative from Washington's 4th congressional district[23]
Dan Newhouse, U.S. Representative from Washington's 4th congressional district[24]

Statewide officials

Dan Evans, 16th Governor of Washington and former U.S. Senator from Washington[25]
Rob McKenna, 17th Attorney General of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012[26]

State legislators

Jan Angel, state senator[27]
Mary Dye, state representative[24]
Curtis King, state senator[28]
Brad Klippert, state representative[24]
Matt Manweller, state representative[29]
Joe Schmick, state representative[24]
Maureen Walsh, state representative[24]

Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Jay Inslee (D)	Bill Bryant (R)	Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	October 6 – November 2, 2016	November 2, 2016	50.7%	42.3%	7.0%	Inslee +8.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Bill Bryant (R)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,451	± 4.6%	55%	42%	3%
Insights West	November 4–6, 2016	402	± 4.9%	49%	40%	10%
SurveyMonkey	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,292	± 4.6%	55%	42%	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 28 – November 3, 2016	944	± 4.6%	56%	41%	3%
SurveyUSA	October 31 – November 2, 2016	667	± 3.9%	50%	43%	6%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	807	± 4.6%	56%	41%	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	698	± 4.6%	55%	41%	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	745	± 4.6%	55%	42%	3%
Elway Poll	October 20–22, 2016	502	± 4.5%	51%	39%	10%
KCTS 9/YouGov	October 6–13, 2016	750	± 4.4%	51%	45%	4%
Strategies 360/KOMO News	September 29 – October 3, 2016	500	± 4.4%	50%	40%	8%
Elway Poll	August 9–13, 2016	500	± 4.5%	48%	36%	16%
Moore Information	May 16–18, 2016	500	± 4.0%	43%	36%	18%
Elway Poll	April 14–17, 2016	503	± 3.5%	48%	36%	16%
Elway Poll	December 28–30, 2015	500	± 4.5%	39%	30%	31%
Public Policy Polling	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	46%	34%	21%

Hypothetical polling

Jay Inslee vs. Andy Hill

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Andy Hill (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	45%	31%	24%

Jay Inslee vs. Rob McKenna

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	43%	38%	19%

Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Dave Reichert (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	45%	34%	22%

Jay Inslee vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Generic Republican	Undecided
Elway Poll	December 28–30, 2015	500	± 4.5%	30%	25%	45%

Jay Inslee vs. generic opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
Moore Information	May 16–18, 2016	500	± 4.0%	38%	47%	15%
Moore Information	May 2015	500	± 4.0%	38%	44%	18%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Moore Information	May 16–18, 2016	500	± 4.0%	41%	34%	5%	20%
Moore Information	May 2015	500	± 4.0%	34%	30%	16%	20%

Results

2016 Washington gubernatorial election[34]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jay Inslee (incumbent)	1,760,520	54.25%	+2.85%
	Republican	Bill Bryant	1,476,346	45.49%	-2.84%
	Write-in		8,416	0.26%	-0.02%
Total votes			3,245,282	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Grays Harbor (largest city: Aberdeen)
Pacific (largest city: Raymond)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Island (largest city: Oak Harbor)
Kitsap (largest city: Bremerton)
Pierce (largest city: Tacoma)

By congressional district

Islee won six of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Bryant.[35]

District	Bryant	Inslee	Representative
1st	49%	51%	Suzan DelBene
2nd	43%	57%	Rick Larsen
3rd	55%	45%	Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th	60%	40%	Dan Newhouse
5th	56%	44%	Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th	46%	54%	Derek Kilmer
7th	22%	78%	Jim McDermott
7th	22%	78%	Pramila Jayapal
8th	54%	46%	Dave Reichert
9th	33%	67%	Adam Smith
10th	47%	53%	Denny Heck

Notes

Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

"Stockpiling for 2016? Gov. Inslee stages quiet 2014 fundraiser". Seattle Pi. October 26, 2014. Retrieved October 21, 2014.
Connelly, Joel (September 29, 2014). "What 2014 elections say about 2016 governor's race". Seattle Pi. Archived from the original on October 6, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014.
Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
O'Sullivan, Joseph (September 11, 2015). "Hill, Litzow won't challenge Inslee in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved September 14, 2015.
Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins lawfirm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
Cornfield, Jerry (June 6, 2013). "If not McKenna, others could challenge Inslee in 2016". HeraldNet. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved July 10, 2014.
Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert decides: He won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2015.
Douglas, C.R. (March 9, 2016). "State schools chief Randy Dorn close to a third-party run for governor". Q13 Fox. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
"August 2, 2016 Primary Results - Governor". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 23, 2016. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
"2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
"Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
"Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
"Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
"2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
"2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
"President Obama to Washington Democrats: Stay involved". The Spokesman-Review.
"We endorse: Inslee 2.0 — Keep him as governor, but demand a stronger version". The News Tribune. October 20, 2016.
"THE OLYMPIAN'S 2016 ENDORSEMENTS". The Olympian. November 5, 2016.
"The Times recommends: Despite flaws, Jay Inslee is the better choice for governor". The Seattle Times. October 21, 2016.
"Endorsements for the November 2016 General Election". The Stranger. October 18, 2016.
"Former WA senator Gorton endorses Bill Bryant for governor". King 5 News. September 18, 2015.
"Former Congressman Sid Morrison Endorses Bill Bryant for Governor". Vote Smart. September 22, 2015.
"Newhouse endorses Bill Bryant for governor". Tri-City Herald. October 23, 2015.
"Democrats and Republicans surprised by early governor's race". Covington Reporter. October 2, 2015.
"Gov's race 2016: Rob McKenna's advice to Bill Bryant". King 5 News. August 16, 2016.
"Senator Jan Angel Endorses Bryant Bid for Governor". Vote Smart. September 30, 2015.
"Senator Curtis King Backs Bryant Bid for Governor". Vote Smart. September 25, 2015.
"Rep. Matt Manweller Endorses Bill Bryant for Governor". Vote Smart. September 21, 2015.
"Review of all S-R endorsements". The Spokesman-Review. October 26, 2016.
"Our voice: We recommend Bill Bryant for governor". Tri-City Herald. October 23, 2016.
"Review of U-B election endorsements". Walla Walla Union-Bulletin. October 23, 2016.
"Endorsement: Bryant able to provide gubernatorial leadership". Yakima Herald-Republic. October 22, 2016.
"November 8, 2016 General Election Results (Washington)". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-06-30.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.

[34] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[1] "Stockpiling for 2016? Gov. Inslee stages quiet 2014 fundraiser". Seattle Pi. October 26, 2014. Retrieved October 21, 2014.

[what2014-2] Connelly, Joel (September 29, 2014). "What 2014 elections say about 2016 governor's race". Seattle Pi. Archived from the original on October 6, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014.

[spokesman-3] Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.

[4] Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved May 14, 2015.

[hill_litzow-5] O'Sullivan, Joseph (September 11, 2015). "Hill, Litzow won't challenge Inslee in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved September 14, 2015.

[McKenna-6] Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins lawfirm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.

[ifnot-7] Cornfield, Jerry (June 6, 2013). "If not McKenna, others could challenge Inslee in 2016". HeraldNet. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved July 10, 2014.

[8] Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert decides: He won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2015.

[9] Douglas, C.R. (March 9, 2016). "State schools chief Randy Dorn close to a third-party run for governor". Q13 Fox. Retrieved March 12, 2016.

[10] "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - Governor". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 23, 2016. Retrieved September 5, 2020.

[11] "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[12] "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[13] "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[14] "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[15] "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[16] "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[17] "President Obama to Washington Democrats: Stay involved". The Spokesman-Review.

[18] "We endorse: Inslee 2.0 — Keep him as governor, but demand a stronger version". The News Tribune. October 20, 2016.

[19] "THE OLYMPIAN'S 2016 ENDORSEMENTS". The Olympian. November 5, 2016.

[20] "The Times recommends: Despite flaws, Jay Inslee is the better choice for governor". The Seattle Times. October 21, 2016.

[21] "Endorsements for the November 2016 General Election". The Stranger. October 18, 2016.

[22] "Former WA senator Gorton endorses Bill Bryant for governor". King 5 News. September 18, 2015.

[23] "Former Congressman Sid Morrison Endorses Bill Bryant for Governor". Vote Smart. September 22, 2015.

[endorsements-24] "Newhouse endorses Bill Bryant for governor". Tri-City Herald. October 23, 2015.

[25] "Democrats and Republicans surprised by early governor's race". Covington Reporter. October 2, 2015.

[26] "Gov's race 2016: Rob McKenna's advice to Bill Bryant". King 5 News. August 16, 2016.

[27] "Senator Jan Angel Endorses Bryant Bid for Governor". Vote Smart. September 30, 2015.

[28] "Senator Curtis King Backs Bryant Bid for Governor". Vote Smart. September 25, 2015.

[29] "Rep. Matt Manweller Endorses Bill Bryant for Governor". Vote Smart. September 21, 2015.

[30] "Review of all S-R endorsements". The Spokesman-Review. October 26, 2016.

[31] "Our voice: We recommend Bill Bryant for governor". Tri-City Herald. October 23, 2016.

[32] "Review of U-B election endorsements". Walla Walla Union-Bulletin. October 23, 2016.

[33] "Endorsement: Bryant able to provide gubernatorial leadership". Yakima Herald-Republic. October 22, 2016.

[35] "November 8, 2016 General Election Results (Washington)". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved 25 February 2021.

[36] Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-06-30.

(2015 ←) 2016 United States elections (→ 2017)
U.S. President	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Guam (straw poll)
U.S. Senate	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Missouri Nevada New Hampshire New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania South Carolina South Dakota Utah Vermont Washington Wisconsin
U.S. House (Election ratings)	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii 1st sp Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky 1st sp Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio 8th sp Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania 2nd sp Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia U.S. Virgin Islands Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Governors	American Samoa Delaware Lt. Gov Indiana Missouri Lt. Gov Montana New Hampshire North Carolina Lt. Gov North Dakota Oregon (special) Puerto Rico Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia
Attorneys general	Missouri North Carolina Pennsylvania
State legislatures	Alaska House Senate California Assembly Senate Colorado Senate Connecticut Senate Delaware House Florida House Georgia House Guam Hawaii Senate Illinois House Senate Iowa Senate Michigan House Minnesota House Senate Montana House Senate Nevada Senate New Hampshire Senate New York Assembly Senate North Carolina House Senate Ohio House Oregon Pennsylvania House Senate South Carolina Senate Texas House Senate Utah Senate Washington House Senate West Virginia Senate Wisconsin Assembly Senate Wyoming Senate
Mayors	Bakersfield, CA Baltimore, MD Baton Rouge, LA Corpus Christi, TX Columbia, MO Fresno, CA Gainesville, FL Glendale, AZ Hampton, VA Honolulu, HI Irvine, CA Lubbock, TX Miami-Dade County, FL Milwaukee, WI Norfolk, VA Portland, OR Richmond, VA Riverside, CA Sacramento, CA Salt Lake County, UT San Diego, CA San Juan, PR Stockton, CA Tulsa, OK Wilmington, DE Winston-Salem, NC
Local	Cook County, IL Los Angeles County, CA San Diego, CA
State-wide	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia U.S. Virgin Islands Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming