Tigrayan peace process

Around 9 November 2020, the TPLF leader and elected head of the Tigray Region, Debretsion Gebremichael, requested the African Union to intervene to stop the war, requesting peace negotiations. Debretsion described Abiy's government as illegitimate.[2][3]

Abiy argued that the TPLF's holding of the 2020 election was illegal and that the TPLF had started preparing for war since 2018, organising and drafting militias. He stated that Ethiopia would manage the situation on its own. Moussa Faki, chairperson of the African Union Commission, "urged" the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments to negotiate. On 10 November, Abiy refused the proposed dialogue.[2][3]

On 20 November, Ethiopian president Sahle-Work Zewde visited South Africa as an envoy of Abiy to discuss the war with Cyril Ramaphosa, president of South Africa and chair of the African Union. As a result of the visit, Ramaphosa appointed three former presidents, Joaquim Chissano of Mozambique, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf of Liberia and Kgalema Motlanthe of South Africa as Special Envoys to "mediate between the parties in the conflict", to "engage with all sides to the conflict", with the aim of obtaining a ceasefire and "creating conditions for an inclusive national dialogue to resolve all issues that led to the conflict". The mediation proposal was motivated by the spirit of "African solutions for African problems."[18][4] Abiy immediately described the news of planned mediation by the envoys between the federal government and the former Tigray government as "fake".[19] The three envoys visited Ethiopia during 25–27 November and talked with Abiy and representatives of the Transitional Government of Tigray that aimed to replace the TPLF government of Tigray. Ramaphosa published a summary of Abiy's views on the war and Abiy's "commitment to dialogue" in the official summary of the envoys' visit.[5]

On 13 December, Sudanese prime minister Abdalla Hamdok stated that he had agreed with Abiy to hold an emergency meeting of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development grouping together seven East African countries. Hamdok arrived in Addis Ababa the same day, as the first foreign leader to visit the city since the Tigray War started.[20] The IGAD summit was held on 20 December in Djibouti,[21] with an official statement "reaffirm[ing] the primacy of constitutional order, stability and unity of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia" and "welcom[ing]" a 29 November agreement on "'unimpeded, sustained and secure access' for humanitarian support."[6] Abiy "expressed [his] deepest gratitude" to the IGAD leaders at the meeting for supporting the federal government.[22]

On 19 February 2021, Liya Kassa of the TPLF, stated that the deposed Tigrayan government wanted peace negotiations, setting eight preconditions.[7] The following day, three minority Tigrayan parties, the National Congress of Great Tigray (Baytona), Tigray Independence Party (TIP) and Salsay Weyane Tigray (SAWET) published six demands to the international community that closely overlapped with the TPLF's pre-conditions.[8] The pre-conditions and demands were:

1. the EDF should leave Tigray Region (Baytona/TIP/SAWET)[8] and an independent international body would have to confirm the departure (TPLF);[7]
2. Tigray would have to be "secured" and the "enemies" partitioning Tigray (TPLF), or Amhara militia and the ENDF (Baytona/TIP/SAWET), would have to leave Tigray Region (TPLF);[8][7]
3. the Transitional Government would have to be replaced by the elected administration returning (TPLF);[7]
4. an international investigative body would have to be created for investigating the war crimes and become functional (TPLF+Baytona/TIP/SAWET);[7][8]
5. full unrestrained access to Tigray would have to be given to journalists and international humanitarian agencies (TPLF+Baytona/TIP/SAWET);[7][8]
6. an international investigative body would have to investigate the looting and destruction of the war (TPLF);[7]
7. Tigrayans arrested as a result of the war would have to be unconditionally released (TPLF);[7]
8. the peace negotiations would have to be mediated by an independent international body (TPLF+Baytona/TIP/SAWET).[7][8]

Seb Hidri made similar demands on 21 February 2021, with the additional demands for a United Nations human rights monitoring and peacekeeping force present while reconstructing a local government; and for a UNESCO-led investigation of the destruction of cultural heritage in Tigray Region.[9]

On 8 March 2021, Sahle-Work Zewde visited Kenya for discussions with Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta. Daily Nation speculated that the purpose of the visit was a followup to United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken's pressure on Kenya to mediate in the Tigray War.[23]

In late March, Abiy refused a ceasefire proposal recommended by US Senator Chris Coons on behalf of US president Joe Biden. Coons, who had five hours of talks with Abiy, stated that he had "pressed for a unilateral declaration of a cease-fire, something the prime minister did not agree to, and pressed for a rapid move towards a full political dialogue on Tigray's future political structure."[24]

In Operation Alula in late June 2021,[25] the Tigray Defence Forces forced the ENDF to leave the Tigrayan capital Mekelle and much of the Tigray Region and the federal government announced a unilateral ceasefire. In the words of peace researcher Alex de Waal, the federal forces held Tigray Region under a "starvation siege". On 4 July, the restored Tigrayan government set seven pre-conditions for a ceasefire:[10]

1. withdrawal of the EDF and Amhara militias;
2. investigations of war crimes;
3. humanitarian access;
4. restoral of services;
5. constitutional rights of the Tigrayan government;
6. suspension of federal-level decisions taken since October 2020;
7. an international monitoring mechanism for the other six points.

De Waal judged the conditions reasonable, but argued that both the federal and Tigrayan governments used provocative language that he described as "macho posturing", symbolising that "the two sides hate each other so much they would rather pull the house down than reconcile."[10]

In late July, a group of anonymous "Concerned Ethiopians" issued a public appeal, published by the World Peace Foundation, for a mediated negotiation between the federal, Tigrayan and Amhara governments, to start with confidence-building measures including the "[de-escalation] of rhetoric" and cessation of hate speech, mutual uncondition recognition, a one-month ceasefire, statements of each government's demands, and withdrawal of the EDF from all of Ethiopia. The Concerned Ethiopians proposed detailed mediation steps, transitional justice and called for a transitional process to find long-term solutions to Ethiopian "political problems deeply structural in their nature".[26]

In early August, Sudanese prime minister Abdallah Hamdok, in his role as head of IGAD, proposed to mediate between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan leaders. Hamdok contacted both sides with the aim of starting negotiations and allowing humanitarian aid to enter Tigray. The Ethiopian government rejected the proposal. Billene Seyoum, Abiy Ahmed's spokesperson, referred to the 2020–2021 Ethiopian–Sudanese clashes and stated that Sudan was not a "credible party" to mediate.[27][28] Researchers Corda Tiziana and Ann Fitz-Gerald said that a unified international stance and mediators who are considered neutral would be needed for mediation to be accepted. Peace researcher Kjetil Tronvoll suggested that Sudan together with another party might be together acceptable as mediators.[29] Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also offered to be a mediator.[30]

On 26 August, Souleymane Bachir Diagne, Mamadou Diouf and 56 other African intellectuals issued an open letter calling for a mediated solution to the conflict, stating, "All Ethiopians must recognise that a political rather than military solution is what is now called for, regardless of the claims and counterclaims, legitimate and otherwise, as to how Ethiopia has come to this place." The group called for IGAD and the AU to implement their mandated roles of providing mediation in the conflict, and for the wider international community to support IGAD and AU mediation actions. The group called for "any negotiated political settlement to include a process of public accountability for mass atrocities committed across Ethiopia."[31]

In July and August, a mediation group called "A3+1" (or A3 plus one), consisting of three African countries, Kenya, Niger and Tunisia, and one non-African country, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, was formed, in the spirit of "African solutions to African challenges". The Kenyan representative proposed an overall strategy of "Ethiopian solutions starting in the order of ceasefire, humanitarian delivery, dialogue, reconciliation and responsibility".[30] On 26 August, Kenyan Ambassador to the United Nations Martin Kimani presented a statement to the United Nations Security Council on A3+1's vision of the conflict and how to mediate a solution. Journalist Martin Plaut interpreted the speech and Abiy Ahmed's reaction to it as illustrating increasing African concern that the conflict would spread. Kimani described causes of the conflict to include "conflicting views of [Ethiopia's] future" and inadequacy of Ethiopian "conflict prevention and resolution tools". He expressed concern about the "growing perception of ethnic identity being the basis of conflict" and unwillingness of each side to accept the others concerns as legitimate. Kimani also called for the Ethiopian parliament to remove the TPLF's terrorist status in order to allow direct negotiations between the TPLF and the federal Ethiopian government.[32]

On 10 September 2021, a collective of 24 Ethiopian civil society organizations called for peace in Ethiopia:[33]

#The root causes that gave rise to the conflict initially will not be sustainably resolved through war and violence. Even when one believes otherwise, doing so will cost the general public a lot.

1. The situation of unarmed civilians is so imminent that it cannot wait. The conflict has principally affected vulnerable groups of society such as women, and girls, children, and the elderly.
   — 24 local civil society organizations, Call for Peace, [33]

The call was issued by the Association of Human Rights in Ethiopia (AHRE), Center for Advancement of Rights and Democracy (CARD), East African Initiative for Change (I4C), Lawyers for Human Rights, Setaweet Movement, Editors Guild of Ethiopia, Association of Human Rights in Ethiopia, Initiative Africa, Family Service Association, International Revival Movement, Center for National & Regional Integration Studies (CeNRIS), Ethiopian Women Lawyers Association (EWLA), Ethiopian Human Rights Defenders Center, TIMRAN, Center for Justice, Center of Concern, Good Governance for Africa – Eastern Africa, Network of Ethiopian Women's Associations (NEWA), Interafrica Group, Gate for Opportunity, New Millennium, Inclusive Vision for Democratic Ethiopia, Ethiopian Initiative for Human Rights, Ethiopian Media Women's Association.

On 8 November, Olusegun Obasanjo, former president of Nigeria, stated to the AU Peace and Security Council that he had met separately with both Abiy Ahmed and Debretsion Gebremichael. Obasanjo stated that both agreed that "the differences opposing them are political and require political solution through dialogue."[34]

On 25 November, the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) called for an inclusive transitional government to be created. The OFC's proposal included an immediate ceasefire, the release of all political prisoners, and "a total repudiation of all incitements to violence and hate speech in all forms". The OFC called for the immediate creation of a 3–6 month interim government headed by a mutually accepted person, and the main goal of the interim government being to create an "all-inclusive transitional government that shall last for 18 months", followed by "free, fair and credible elections".[35]