Division of Page

The Division of Page is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.

Page
Australian House of Representatives Division
Division of Page in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election.
Created1984
MPKevin Hogan
PartyNationals
NamesakeSir Earle Page
Electors122,915 (2022)
Area19,342 km2 (7,468.0 sq mi)
DemographicRural

Ahead of the 2016 federal election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed the seat in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as "bellwether" electorates.[1]

History
Sir Earle Page, the division's namesake

The division is named after the Right Honourable Sir Earle Page, the second leader of the Country Party of Australia and the Prime Minister of Australia after the death of Joseph Lyons in 1939. The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 11 October 1984, and was first contested at the 1984 federal election.

Since its creation, Page has usually been a marginal seat, frequently changing hands between the National Party and the Labor Party, with neither party gaining more than 55% of the two party preferred vote at any election except for the 1984 election and the 2019 election. It has been a bellwether seat since the 1990 election, having been won by the party winning government at every election. Though results vary by election, booths in the City of Lismore LGA are usually Labor’s strongest results, while the more rural booths generally deliver strong votes for the Nationals candidate.[2]

It was previously held by Ian Causley, the Deputy Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives. Causley retired at the 2007 election, and Chris Gulaptis, a former Mayor of Maclean, was endorsed as the Nationals' candidate. Labor selected Janelle Saffin, a former member of the New South Wales Legislative Council, who took the seat with a swing of around 8 per cent. Saffin increased her majority in 2010, however was defeated in 2013 by the Nationals' Kevin Hogan, who won with a swing of 6.71 per cent. Saffin ran against Hogan in the 2016 election but did not regain the seat.

Hogan moved to the crossbench in 2018 in protest over the spate of leadership spills in the Liberal Party. However, he still supported the Coalition on confidence and supply, and remained a National in good standing. He was reelected as a National at the 2019 election, boosting his majority to 59 percent, the strongest result for either party in the seat's history.[3] He rejoined the Coalition before the 2019 election and contested that as a Nationals endorsed candidate.[4][5]

Boundaries

Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[6]

The division is located in the far north-east of the state, adjoining the border with Queensland and the Tasman Sea. It includes the towns of Lismore, Casino, Grafton, Tyringham, Bonalbo, Nimbin, Yamba and Iluka. Originally, much of its current territory (including Page's home of Grafton) was located in neighbouring Cowper, which Page represented from 1919 to 1961. In February 2016, Page's borders were extended as far south as Sapphire Beach.[7]

Members
Image Member Party Term Notes
  Ian Robinson
(1925–2017)		 Nationals 1 December 1984 –
24 March 1990		 Previously held the Division of Cowper. Lost seat
  Harry Woods
(1947–)		 Labor 24 March 1990 –
2 March 1996		 Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Clarence in 1996
  Ian Causley
(1940–2020)		 Nationals 2 March 1996 –
17 October 2007		 Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Clarence. Retired
  Janelle Saffin
(1954–)		 Labor 24 November 2007 –
7 September 2013		 Previously a member of the New South Wales Legislative Council. Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Lismore in 2019
  Kevin Hogan
(1963–)		 Nationals 7 September 2013 –
present		 Incumbent

Election results
Main article: Electoral results for the Division of Page
This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2019 Australian federal election in New South Wales § Page.[edit]
2019 Australian federal election: Page[8]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
National Kevin Hogan 53,672 49.63 +5.35
Labor Patrick Deegan 28,507 26.36 −8.50
Greens Dan Reid 12,634 11.68 +0.54
Independent Fiona Leviny 5,240 4.85 +4.85
United Australia John Mudge 3,460 3.20 +3.20
Animal Justice Alison Waters 2,646 2.45 −0.40
Christian Democrats Peter Walker 1,992 1.84 −1.01
Total formal votes 108,151 95.25 −0.91
Informal votes 5,397 4.75 +0.91
Turnout 113,548 92.53 −0.25
Two-party-preferred result
National Kevin Hogan 64,295 59.45 +7.15
Labor Patrick Deegan 43,856 40.55 −7.15
National hold Swing+7.15
Primary vote results in Page (Parties that did not get 5% of the vote are omitted)
  National
  Liberal
  Labor
  Greens
  Australian Democrats
  One Nation
  Independent
Two-candidate-preferred results in Page

References
  1. The Bellwether Contests: Antony Green ABC
  2. "Page – Australia 2019 | The Tally Room". 2 April 2018.
  3. "Page (Key Seat) - Federal Electorate, Candidates, Results - ABC News". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  4. "It's time for sane Liberals to tell their party's deniers the climate has changed | The New Daily Liberal dinosaur need to be taught the climate has changed". 10 January 2020.
  5. "Nats MP to return if elected, leader says".
  6. Muller, Damon (14 November 2017). "The process of federal redistributions: a quick guide". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 19 April 2022.
  7. "Profile of the electoral division of Page (NSW)". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 18 March 2016.
  8. Page, NSW, Tally Room 2019, Australian Electoral Commission.

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