Climate change in Afghanistan

Climate change in Afghanistan is resulting in impacts that culminate from overlapping interactions of natural disasters (due to changes in the climate system), conflict, agricultural dependency, and severe socio-economic hardship. Combined with infrequent earthquakes, climate-related disasters such as floods, flash floods, avalanches and heavy snowfalls on average affect 200,000 people every year, causing massive losses of lives, livelihoods and properties.[1] Unfortunately, these interacting factors, particularly protracted conflicts which erode and challenge the ability to handle, adapt to and plan for climate change at individual and national levels, often turn climate change risks and hazards into disasters.

Although the country itself contributes only very little to global warming with regards to greenhouse gas emissions, droughts due to climate change affect and will affect Afghanistan to a high degree.

Greenhouse gas emissions

Afghanistan is among the lowest emitting countries on earth. In 2018, Afghanistan emitted 0.3 tons of carbon dioxide per capita.[2]

Energy in Afghanistan is reliant especially on hydropower. Energy is imported as well from neighbouring countries.[3][4]

Impacts

The World Bank projects that Afghanistan will see a warming higher than the global average due to global warming, with rises in maximum and minimum temperatures expected to be higher than rises in average temperature.[5] Since 1950, temperatures in Afghanistan have risen by 1.8°C.[6] This leads and will lead to massive droughts. Due to these increased droughts related to a warming of all regions of the country by 2.0°C to 6.2°C by 2090 depending on scenario, Afghanistan will be confronted with desertification and land degradation.[7] 35% of Afghanistan's population is suffering from food insecurity, with an increase projected. The increasing droughts could lead to a boom of the opium production in Afghanistan, as opium is drought-resistant.[6]

In addition to droughts, extreme rainfall will increase due to climate change, which could lead to landslides.[8]

The basin of the Kunduz River has seen a decrease in precipitation of 30% since the 1960s, which is compensated by increasing glacier melt.[9] Almost 14% of Afghanistan's glacier coverage was lost between 1990 and 2015. By 2100, the region could lose 60% of its glaciers. The number of glaciers and glacial lakes increases in Afghanistan at the moment, probably due to the breaking up of larger glaciers. Mountainous regions such as the area at the source of the Amu Darya will be at great risk of glacial lake outburst floods.[5]

A drought in 2017 and 2018 led to a massive internal displacement within the country.[8] ActionAid claims that by 2050 around 5 million more people could become internally displaced within Afghanistan due to climate change.[8]

Adaptation

In 2015, Afghanistan submitted a climate plan to the United Nations. The plan outlined that by 2030 2.5 billion USD were needed for watershed management and 4.5 billion USD for restoring irrigation systems.[6]

References
  1. "Overlapping vulnerabilities: The impacts of climate change on humanitarian needs" (PDF). Norwegian Red Cross. 2019 – via Relief Web.
  2. Union, Publications Office of the European (2019-09-26). "Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries : 2019 report". op.europa.eu. Retrieved 2021-09-08.
  3. "Afghanistan - The World Factbook". www.cia.gov. Retrieved 2021-09-08.
  4. "Afghanistan Annually Pays $280M for Imported Power". TOLOnews. Retrieved 2021-09-08.
  5. "Shrinking, Thinning, Retreating: Afghan glaciers under threat from climate change". Afghanistan Analysts Network - English (in Pashto). 2021-01-05. Retrieved 2021-09-07.
  6. "Afghanistan at risk of hunger amid drought and Taliban takeover". Climate Home News. 2021-08-24. Retrieved 2021-09-08.
  7. "Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan. A Report to the Department for International Development" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-06-28. Retrieved 2021-09-07.
  8. Welle (www.dw.com), Deutsche. "Amid Taliban takeover, climate change could drive conflict | DW | 30.08.2021". DW.COM. Retrieved 2021-09-08.
  9. Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad; Soltani, Salim; Aich, Valentin (2020). "Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Kunduz River Basin, Afghanistan". Climate. 8 (10): 102. doi:10.3390/cli8100102.
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