North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone

In the Indian Ocean north of the equator, tropical cyclones can form throughout the year on either side of India, although most frequently between April and June, and between October and December.

Cumulative track map of all North Indian Ocean cyclones from 1970 to 2005

Sub-basins

Very severe cyclonic storms (Luban and Titli) over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in October 2018

The North Indian Ocean is the least active basin, contributing only seven percent of the world's tropical cyclones. However the basin has produced some of the deadliest cyclones in the world, since they strike over very densely populated areas.[1] The Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) is the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and it is responsible to monitor the basin, issues warning and name the storms.[2]

The basin is divided into two sub-basins   the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.[3]

The Bay of Bengal, located in the northeast of the Indian Ocean. The basin is abbreviated BOB by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).[4] The United States's Joint Typhoon Warning Center unofficially designates as B to classify storms formed in the Bay of Bengal.[5] The Bay of Bengal's coast is shared among India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and western part of Thailand.[6] This sub-basin is the most active and produced one of the deadliest cyclones of all time.[7] The most intense cyclone in the bay was the 1999 Odisha cyclone.[8]

The Arabian Sea is a sea located in the northwest of the Indian Ocean. Tropical cyclones in the basin are abbreviated ARB by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).[4] The United States's Joint Typhoon Warning Center unofficially designates as A to classify storms formed in the Arabian Sea.[9] The Arabian Sea's coast is shared among India, Yemen, Oman, UAE, Iran, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Somalia.[10] Monsoons are characteristic of the Arabian Sea and responsible for the yearly cycling of its waters. In summer, strong winds blow from the southwest to the northeast, bringing rain to the Indian subcontinent. Cyclones are rare in the Arabian Sea, but the basin can produce strong tropical cyclones.[10] Cyclone Gonu was the strongest and the costliest recorded tropical cyclone in the basin.[11]

History of the basin

The systematic scientific studies of tropical systems in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea was started during the 19th century by Henry Piddington.[12] Piddington utilised meteorological logs of vessels that navigated the seas and published a series of memoirs, in the Journal of the Asiatic Society of Bengal between 1839 and 1858.[12] These memoirs gave accounts and tracks of individual storms in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.[12]

During the 2004 post monsoon season the IMD started to name tropical cyclones within the basin, with the first one named Cyclone Onil during September 2004.[13] During 2015 a modification to the intensity scale took place, with the IMD and WMO calling a system with 3-minute maximum sustained wind speeds between 90 knots (165 km/h; 105 mph) and 120 knots (220 km/h; 140 mph) an extremely severe cyclonic storm.[14]

A study analysing the spring season of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal found increases in both pre-monsoon precipitation and tropical cyclone intensity as a result of enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation after 1979. The deepened monsoon trough in the Bay of Bengal not only affects cyclone frequency and timing, but also acts to direct more cyclones towards Myanmar. Increased anthropogenic aerosols likely contributed to such a regional climate change.[15]

    Climatology

    Formation and frequency

    On average only five to six tropical cyclones forms in the basin. Tropical cyclones form in the months of March to June and October to December with peaks at May and November. Of which most of these storms form in the Bay of Bengal. These storms either form in the southeastern Bay of Bengal or in the Andaman Sea or a remnant of a typhoon from the South China Sea.[8] High sea surface temperatures and humidity makes the bay more favourable to tropical cyclone development.[16] It also can be said that the frequency of the tropical cyclones in the West Pacific is high, which maybe another reason for increased tropical cyclogenesis in the bay as it shares a fair portion of increased quota of ACE. Meanwhile, the storms in the Arabian Sea mostly form over south-eastern part of the Arabian Sea or a remnant of a tropical cyclone from the Bay of Bengal, however the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea is generally less due to cooler sea-surface temperature and high wind shear.[8] However a strong positive IOD may cause an increase of tropical cyclogenesis than usual which was seen the 2019 season.[17] Very few tropical cyclone development occurs during the months of June to September (Monsoon months) because of high vertical wind shear. These storms form and peak as depression or deep depression intensity before making a landfall in Odisha or West Bengal coast. Another reason is the low life span in the sea which also avoids the intensification of these low-pressure systems.[8]

    Movement

    Most of the storms move in a north-westerly direction and starts curving either towards southwest or northeast. There's a higher frequency of recurving towards northeast rather going southwest. In the Arabian Sea these storms mostly move in north-westerly direction targeting the Arabian Peninsula, however in some case these storm moves north-eastwards after crossing the 15°N latitude and strikes the Gujarati coast. In the Bay of Bengal, storms generally moves north-westwards until reaching the east coast and then moves north eastwards.[18]

    Intensification

    Intensification probability is maximum in the month of April, May and November in case of a depression becoming a cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm. More than half of the depressions intensify into a storm and a quarter intensify into a cyclone in these months.[19]

    Landfall

    In the Arabian Sea, most storms dissipate offshore without making landfall, but a significant number of tropical cyclones also impact the west coast, particularly the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. The remaining 11 percent makes landfall in either the Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa or Pakistan.[20] In rare cases, some storms makes landfall in the Iran like Cyclone Gonu did back in 2007.[21] Other than Gonu, two storms like Cyclone Yemyin and Kyarr made some or major impact in Iran.[22][23]

    In the Bay of Bengal, most of the storms strikes either the Indian state of Odisha or West Bengal and a significant number of storms hit the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. 30 percent of the cyclones strike the countries of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar while the remaining 13 percent just dissipates off shore without making landfall.[20]

    Climate change

    After a series of devastating cyclones in 2018, rising number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea in 2019 and rising trend of rapid intensification in 2020 and 2021, many climatologist agrees that climate change have caused these activities. On average five cyclonic storm occurs every year the Arabian Sea, however in 2019 eight cyclonic storms formed becoming the highest tropical cyclones formation in the sub-basin, which was tied with the 1902 season.[24][25] Research found that in recent decades the sea surface temperatures has risen up by 1.2–1.4 °C (34.2–34.5 °F) in the Arabian Sea.[25] During Cyclone Amphan underwent a rapid intensification, sea surface temperatures were as high as 33 °C (91 °F) in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea recorded 32 °C (90 °F) sea surface temperature, before the formation of Cyclone Nisarga.[26] According to the Union Ministry of Earth and Science, the frequency of very severe cyclonic storm has risen up by one per decade in last two decades, despite the decrease of overall frequency of the basin in the last two decades.[25] Higher temperatures caused the cyclones to become more powerful and lead to tropical cyclone formation faster. Rising sea level also caused higher storm surge.[26] Researchers also predict that cyclones will be deadlier and stronger as the trend of warming sea surface temperatures continues. Rising sea levels also may cause severe flooding, strong storm surges and will inundate coastal towns.[26]

    Seasons

    Historical storm formation by month between 1990 and 2020
    10
    20
    30
    40
    50
    60
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    •   Super Cyclone
    •   Extremely Severe
    •   Very Severe
    •   Severe
    •   Cyclonic Storm
    •   Deep Depression
    •   Depression

    Before 1890

    1890s

    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Notes
    18901041
    18911343Total includes 1 Land Severe Cyclonic Storm
    18921272
    189312104
    18941260
    18951154
    18961083
    18971268
    18981373
    1899730
    References[27]

    1900s

    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    19001031
    1901632
    19021375
    19031482
    1904940
    19051060
    19061171
    19071584
    1908961
    190988 4
    References[27]

    1910s

    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    1910652
    1911754
    1912962
    19131062
    1914842
    1915960
    19161485
    19171031
    19181150
    19191163
    References[27]

    1920s

    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    1920950
    19211041
    19221366
    19231643
    19241360
    19252073
    192613103
    19271872
    19281370
    19291560
    References[27]

    1930s

    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    193014101
    19311151
    19321462
    19331683
    19341650
    19351562
    19361763
    19371962
    19381044
    19391973
    References[27]

    1940s

    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    19401685
    19411984
    19421452
    19431471
    19441982
    19451532
    19461751
    19471842
    19481863
    19491211
    References[27]

    1950s

    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    19501640
    19511542
    19521742
    19531011
    19541410
    19551362
    19561442
    1957742
    19581252
    19591663
    References[27]

    1960s

    This ESSA 3 satellite image was taken on November 3, 1966, at 0819 UTC of a tropical cyclone striking Madras, India
    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    19601553 VSCS  Ten20,299>$9.4 millionVast majority of the fatalities resulted from two cyclones striking East Pakistan three weeks apart
    19611854 SCS  Three11,525UnknownThree land depressions developed this season
    19621353 VSCS  Twelve769$34.5 millionDeadliest storm, Harriet, crossed over from the Western Pacific
    19631764 SuCS  Three11,735UnknownStrongest storm was equivalent to a super cyclonic storm; had the lowest measured pressure in the basin at the time at 919.9 mbar (hPa; 27.16 inHg)
    19641675 SuCS  Sixteen>1,827>$150 millionStrongest storm was equivalent to a super cyclonic storm
    19651464
    19661886
    19671564
    19681374 SuCS  One
    19691461 ESCS  Twelve
    References[27]

    1970s

    YearDCSSCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    19701573 ESCS  Thirteen300,000-500,00086.4 millionThe Bhola Cyclone is the deadliest tropical cyclone recorded worldwide
    19711576 ESCS  12B
    19721876 ESCS  09B
    19731663 SCS  14B
    19741273 VSCS  06B
    19752074 ESCS  02A
    197614107 ESCS  02A
    19771855 SuCS  06Bup to 50,000192 million US$US$ of 1977. Devastated Krishna Delta area in Andhra Pradesh
    19781453 SuCS  04B
    19791154 ESCS  01B
    References[27]

    1980s

    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    1980141450000  CS  BOB 02
    1981121253300  VSCS  BOB 03
    1982191185330  ESCS  BOB 01
    19837421110  ESCS  03B
    19847743 3 2 0  ESCS  03B
    1985151561 1 0 0  VSCS  01B
    19868310 0 0 0  CS  02B
    19879853 1 0 0  VSCS  01B
    19889553 2 2 0  ESCS  04B6,740$13 million
    198910532111 SuCS  Gay1,785$25.27 MillionGay crossed over from the West Pacific Basin
    References[27]

    1990s

    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes and
    References
    199011622111 SuCS  BOB 01967$600 million[28][29]
    19919431111 SuCS  BOB 01>138,000$1.5 billion[29]
    1992131172110 ESCS  Forrest189$69 millionForrest crossed over from the West Pacific Basin
    19935422200 ESCS  BOB 03714$216 million
    19945542210 ESCS  BOB 02315$12.5 million
    19958632210 ESCS  BOB 07554$46.3 million
    199610864200 VSCS  BOB 052,075$1.9 billion
    19979732110 ESCS  BOB 01117Unknown
    1998131065310 ESCS  ARB 02>10,212$3 billion
    199910853321 SuCS  BOB 0615,780$5 billionThe Odisha cyclone is the strongest cyclone recorded in the Northern Indian Ocean.
    References[27]

    2000s

    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    20007652220 ESCS  BOB 05238$185 million
    20016541110 ESCS  ARB 01108$104 million
    20027741000 SCS  BOB 04182$25 million
    20037533100 VSCS  BOB 01358$163 million
    200410744110 ESCS  BOB 01587$130 million
    200512730000 CS  Pyarr273$21.4 million
    200612632110 ESCS  Mala623$6.7 million
    200711842221 SuCS  Gonu16,248$6.4 billionFirst time category 5-equivalent cyclones existed in both Arabian Sea (Gonu) and Bay of Bengal (Sidr)
    200810741110 ESCS  Nargis>138,927$15.4 billionThe deadliest cyclone season since 1970
    Second-costliest cyclone season on record
    20098641000 SCS  Aila421$618 million
    References[27]

    2010s

    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    20108654210 ESCS  Giri402$2.99 billionThe most active season since 1998
    201110621100 VSCS  Thane360$277 million
    20125520000 CS  Nilam128$56.7 millionThe first depression of the year did not develop until October 10
    201310654310 ESCS  Phailin323$1.5 billionFeatured Phailin, the first Category 5-equivalent cyclone since Sidr in 2007
    20148532220 ESCS  Nilofar183$3.4 billion
    201512942220 ESCS  Chapala363$358 million
    201610541100 VSCS  Vardah401$5.4 billion
    201710632100 VSCS  Ockhi834$3.65 billion
    201814975310 ESCS  Mekunu343$4.33 billionThe most active season since 1992
    First simultaneous cyclonic storms in Arabian Sea (Luban) and Bay of Bengal (Titli) since reliable records began
    2019121186631 SuCS  Kyarr173$11.5 billionEarliest cyclonic storm in the basin
    First Super Cyclonic Storm since 2007
    99 68 43 27 21 10 1 Kyarr 3510 $33.5 billion
    References[27]

    2020s

    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCS[A 1]Strongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    20209654311 SuCS  Amphan269$15.8 billionFirst super cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal since 1999
    Featured the costliest cyclone ever recorded in the basin, Amphan
    Costliest North Indian cyclone season on record
    20217543210 ESCS  Tauktae230$5.31 billion
    20222200000 DD  BOB 020None
    Total181397521Amphan499$21.11 billion

    Records

    See also

    Notes

    1. Each column refers to how many Storms developed during the season with D=Depressions, DD=Deep Depressions, CS=Cyclonic Storms, SCS=Severe Cyclonic Storm, VSCS=Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, ESCS=Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, SUCS=Super Cyclonic Storm. For further details please refer to Tropical cyclone scales

    References

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    2. "Activities of RSMC, New Delhi". www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in. Retrieved June 5, 2021.
    3. "2021 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season". disasterphilanthropy.org. Retrieved June 5, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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    5. "TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001". www.metoc.navy.mil. Pearl Harbour, Hawaii: Joint Typhoon Warning Center. May 24, 2021. Archived from the original on May 24, 2021. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
    6. "Bay of Bengal | bay, Indian Ocean". Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved June 3, 2021.
    7. "Why Bay of Bengal is hotbed of worst tropical cyclones? As Yaas hits Odisha, here's all you need to know". The Financial Express. May 26, 2021. Retrieved June 5, 2021.
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    10. "History of cyclones in the Arabian sea". Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP). April 10, 2011. Retrieved May 30, 2021.
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    14. Third Joint Session of Panel on Tropical Cyclones & Typhoon Committee February 9–13, 2015 (PDF). Bangkok, Thailand: World Meteorological Organization. p. 10. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 19, 2016.
    15. Wang, Shih-Yu; Buckley, Brendan M.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Fosu, Boniface (2013). "Intensification of premonsoon tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and its impacts on Myanmar". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118 (10): 4373–4384. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50396. ISSN 2169-8996.
    16. "Why Bay of Bengal is hotbed of world's worst tropical cyclones?". Get Bengal. Retrieved June 2, 2021.
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    21. "WHO EMRO | Experience of cyclone Gonu in the Islamic Republic of Iran: lessons learned | Volume 16, issue 12 | EMHJ volume 16, 2010". www.emro.who.int. Retrieved June 7, 2021.
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    23. "NASA - Hurricane Season 2007: Tropical Cyclone 3B". www.nasa.gov. Retrieved June 7, 2021.
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    26. Sarkar, Soumya (June 5, 2020). "Cyclones rise as climate change heats up Indian Ocean". India Climate Dialogue. Retrieved June 5, 2021.
    27. Unattributed (August 31, 2010). "Annual frequency of cyclonic disturbances (Maximum sustained windspeeds of 17 knots or more), Cyclones (34 knots or more) and Severe Cyclones (48 knots or more) over the Bay of Bengal (BOB), Arabian Sea (AS) and land surface of India" (PDF). India Meteorological Department. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 5, 2011. Retrieved August 20, 2011.
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