Persian famine of 1870–1872

Xavier de Planhol comments that the famine was a result of "combined climatic catastrophes made worse by poor administration and the human factors".[2]

New York Herald attributed the famine to an increase in the price of cotton which made the farmers abandon farming for grains and plant cotton in its place.[3]

Shoko Okazaki maintains that the two consecutive years of severe drought was the principal factor and rejects that the increase in production of opium and cotton contributed to the famine. She also blames "senior bureaucrats, landlords, grain dealers and high-ranking religious officials who engaged in hoarding and market manipulation".[4] Cormac Ó Gráda endorses the latter reason.[5]

There is no agreement among scholars as to the total number of deaths during the famine, although there was a considerable decline in Iran's population.[6]

Among contemporary observers, Frederic John Goldsmid gave the figure of 0.2–0.3 million deaths, while Oliver St. John put the total loss at 0.5 million. James Bassett suggested that 3 million lives were lost and Henry Walter Bellew who was travelling in Iran in 1872, cited at least 1.5 million had perished. Badaye-negar, a Persian scholar of the time, estimated 2.5 million deaths.[6] Gad G. Gilbar's estimation of 1.5 million deaths is acknowledged by Shoko Okazaki and Charles P. Melville.[1][4] Fereydun Adamiyat calculates the death toll around 2 million deaths. Ahmad Seyf attributes a decline in the estimated population from 10 million in 1850 to 6 million in 1873, to the catastrophe, and implies that at least 4 million had perished.[6] Of these estimates, only Seyf's analysis is based on a comparison of pre and post-famine population, and he establishes that the death toll was at least 4 million. The New York Herald of July 29, 1871, refers to the "Unparalleled Mortality" of the famine and adds "Persia Already Half Depopulated".[7] And the famine had continued for at least another year.

The ultimate extent of the depopulation is indicated by the proportion of empty and abandoned houses following the famine. A British official passing through the town of Kazeroon in south Iran in 1875, had noted that of the 2,700 houses, only 1,000 (37%) were occupied and the remaining 63% were devoid of inhabitants. The author states that the 37% occupancy rate "is about the usual proportion throughout Persia."[8] The true measure of the "unparalleled mortality" of the famine is found in the population statistics for 1800-1873.

The population in 1800 of the territory that comprises present day Iran is reported at 6.3 million. The article adds that immigration of Moslems from the Caucasus fleeing Russian expansion and possible ethnic cleansing had greatly contributed to Iran's population growth in the nineteenth century, and this migration had accelerated in the 1860s.[9] The population circa 1820 of the remaining ten provinces following the Russo-Persian wars is given at 9-10 million by Adrian Dupre′.[10] The 1841 population is reported at 11.2 million by John Ramsey MacCulloch.[11] The 1854 population is given at 13 million by Eugene Flandin who indicated that in his opinion it was a very conservative estimate.[12] The 1865 population was stated at 16 million by Iranians.[13] Similarly, the 1867 population is given at 16 to 20 million by Julien de Rochechouart, whose 1867 book was published under the auspices of the French Government.[14] The 1869 population of 18 million given by Mohammad Gholi Majd corresponds to the mid-point of the population range of 16-20 million given by de Rochechouart.[15]

The 1873 post-famine population is given at 6 million by Sir Henry Rawlinson who is cited by both Seyf (2010) and Majd (2018). The population in 1873 was the same as 1800: that is 73 years of population growth had been wiped out by famine and disease. Comparing the pre-famine population of 18 million in 1869 with the post-famine population of 6 million in 1873, Majd concluded that at least 10-12 million Iranians, nearly two-thirds of the population had perished, a finding that is supported by the similar proportion of empty houses reported above. The famine was "possibly the greatest calamity in the recorded history of modern Iran."[16]