2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary
The 2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary took place on Tuesday, March 17, 2020, as one of three contests on the same day in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 United States presidential election. The closed primary allocated 67 pledged delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, distributed in proportion to the results of the primary, statewide and within each congressional district. The state was also given an additional 13 unpledged delegates (superdelegates), whose votes at the convention were not bound to the result of the primary.
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80 Democratic National Convention delegates (67 pledged with 44 on district-level and 23 statewide; 13[lower-alpha 1] unpledged) The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Election results by county Joe Biden Bernie Sanders | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arizona |
|---|
 |
| Pledged national convention delegates | |
|---|---|
| Type | Del. |
| CD1 | 5 |
| CD2 | 6 |
| CD3 | 5 |
| CD4 | 3 |
| CD5 | 5 |
| CD6 | 5 |
| CD7 | 4 |
| CD8 | 5 |
| CD9 | 6 |
| PLEO | 9 |
| At-large | 14 |
| Total pledged delegates | 67 |
Three major candidates ran in the primary, including former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, and representative Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii's 2nd district. Six other candidates who withdrew prior to the contest were also on the ballot, along with three minor candidates. Biden won the primary, with 43.7% of the vote and 38 delegates, with Sanders in second place with 32.7% of the vote and 29 delegates. In a distant third was Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, with 5.8% of the vote; no other candidates won over 5% of the vote. Biden won 13 of 15 counties, with the exception of Coconino and Yuma, and 7 of 9 congressional districts.[1]
Key to Biden's victory were white voters, whom he won 51-32 per CNN exit polls, and suburban voters, who he won 53-32;[2] Arizona's suburban voters – in particular, those in Maricopa County, which holds Phoenix and 61.6% of the population[3] – have long been reliantly Republican voters since the 1950s, but had been swiftly moving to the left as the state's minority population has grown and the Republican Party has moved to the right, making Arizona a hotly contested state in the 2020 election.[4] Biden carried Maricopa County by over 33,000 votes and Pima County, the second largest county and home to Tucson, by almost 18,000 votes.[1] In a stark contrast from 2016, Sanders' strength was reliant primarily on non-white and Hispanic voters, whom Biden won by only 47-45 and 45-44, respectively. The 3rd and 7th congressional districts, both of which Sanders won, are majority Hispanic, as was Yuma County, which Sanders managed to flip. Sanders held onto Coconino County, home to Flagstaff.
Biden would ultimately win the state of Arizona in the general election by 10,457 votes, making him the first Democrat to win it since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry Truman did so in 1948.
Procedure
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Arizona was one of three states holding primaries on March 17, 2020, the others being Florida and Illinois.
Voters had to have been registered as Democrats by February 18 to be eligible for voting in the primary. Arizona mailed ballots to voters on the permanent early voting list. Ballots must have been received by 7:00 p.m. on March 17, 2020. In addition, some Arizona counties offered early voting sites, where any voter may walk in and vote in person, Monday to Friday, from February 19 through March 13, 2020.[5][6]
Voting took place from 6:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m MST. In the closed primary, candidates must meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable for delegates The 67 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 67 pledged delegates, between 3 and 6 are allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 9 are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 14 at-large pledged delegates.[7] As a March primary on Stage I of the primary timetable Arizona received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on a March date.[8]
District caucuses were held on Saturday, April 18, 2020, to designate national convention district delegates. The state convention and state committee meeting were subsequently held on Saturday, May 16, 2020, to vote on the 14 pledged at-large and 9 PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 67 pledged delegates Arizona sent to the national convention were joined by 13 unpledged PLEO delegates (7 members of the Democratic National Committee, Senator Kyrsten Sinema, and 5 representatives).[7]
Candidates
The following candidates appeared on the ballot in Arizona. Candidates that had filed a formal withdrawal with the office remained on the ballot because it had already been printed but were not counted and did not appear in the results.[9]
Running
- Joe Biden
- Roque De La Fuente III
- Michael Ellinger
- Tulsi Gabbard
- Henry Hewes
- Bernie Sanders
Withdrawn
Formal withdrawal (ineligible)
Polling
| Polling aggregation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden |
Bernie Sanders |
Tulsi Gabbard |
Other/ Undecided[lower-alpha 5] |
| 270 to Win | Mar 17, 2020 | Mar 3–16, 2020 | 50.6% | 29.4% | 1.0% | 19.0% |
| RealClear Politics | Mar 17, 2020 | Mar 6–15, 2020 | 51.7% | 33.7% | 1.0% | 13.6% |
| FiveThirtyEight | Mar 17, 2020 | until Mar 16, 2020[lower-alpha 6] | 51.6% | 26.9% | 1.1% | 20.4% |
| Average | 51.3% | 30.0% | 1.0% | 17.7% | ||
| Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 7] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Michael Bloomberg |
Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Andrew Yang |
Other | Undecided | ||||
| Swayable Archived March 17, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Mar 16, 2020 | 1,167 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 53% | – | – | – | 29% | – | – | 19%[lower-alpha 8] | – | ||||
| Marist/NBC News | Mar 10–15, 2020 | 523 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 53% | – | – | – | 36% | – | – | 8%[lower-alpha 9] | 3% | ||||
| 913 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | – | – | – | 37% | – | – | 9%[lower-alpha 10] | 5% | ||||||
| Monmouth University | Mar 11–14, 2020 | 373 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 5% | 3% | – | 31% | 3% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 11] | 5% | ||||
| Latino Decisions/Univision/ Arizona State University |
Mar 6–11, 2020 | 541 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 57%[lower-alpha 12] | – | – | – | 38%[lower-alpha 12] | – | – | – | 5%[lower-alpha 12] | ||||
| 51% | – | – | – | 34% | – | – | 6%[lower-alpha 13] | 8% | ||||||||
| Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | Mar 3–4, 2020 | 398 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 12% | – | – | 17% | 13% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 14] | 9% | ||||
| Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
| Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | Oct 31 – Nov 8, 2019 | 260 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 29% | – | 9% | 5% | 16% | 18% | 4% | 19%[lower-alpha 15] | – | ||||
| Emerson Polling | Oct 25–28, 2019 | 339 | ± 5.2% | 28% | – | 12% | 4% | 21% | 21% | 5% | 7%[lower-alpha 16] | – | ||||
| Siena Research/New York Times | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 209 | – | 24% | – | 5% | 3% | 16% | 15% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 17] | 31% | ||||
| Change Research | Sep 27–28, 2019 | 396 (LV) | – | 15% | – | 13% | 4% | 19% | 35% | 8% | 7%[lower-alpha 18] | – | ||||
| Bendixen&Amandi | Sep 9–12, 2019 | 250 | ± 4.3% | 29% | – | 5% | 4% | 18% | 24% | 2% | 8%[lower-alpha 19] | 10% | ||||
| Zogby Analytics | May 23–29, 2019 | 197 | ± 7.0% | 35% | – | 6% | 4% | 16% | 10% | 0% | 11%[lower-alpha 20] | – | ||||
Results
[[File:2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary election results map by county (vote share).svg|thumb|250px|Popular vote share by county
{{collapsible list
Map legend
]]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[11] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 268,029 | 43.70 | 38 |
| Bernie Sanders | 200,456 | 32.70 | 29 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 4] | 35,537 | 5.79 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 3] | 24,868 | 4.05 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 3,014 | 0.49 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 1,921 | 0.31 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 754 | 0.12 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 668 | 0.11 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 242 | 0.04 | |
| Henry Hewes | 208 | 0.03 | |
| Others | 812 | 0.13 | |
| Ineligible candidates[lower-alpha 21] | 76,846 | 12.53 | |
| Total | 613,355 | 100% | 67 |
By county
| County[10] | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) |
Tulsi Gabbard | Andrew Yang (withdrawn) |
Julián Castro (withdrawn) |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) |
Rocky De La Fuente | Deval Patrick (withdrawn) |
Henry Hewes | Michael A. Ellinger | Others[lower-alpha 22][lower-alpha 23] | Margin | Total votes cast | Eligible voters | Voter turnout | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||||
| Apache | 3,092 | 44.0% | 2,523 | 35.9% | 252 | 3.6% | 143 | 2.0% | 48 | 0.7% | 36 | 0.5% | 20 | 0.3% | 25 | 0.4% | 26 | 0.4% | 22 | 0.3% | 13 | 0.2% | 10 | 0.1% | 818 | 11.6% | 569 | 8.1% | 7,028 | 28,734 | 24.5% |
| Cochise | 4,123 | 41.7% | 2,694 | 27.3% | 678 | 6.9% | 466 | 4.7% | 93 | 0.9% | 34 | 0.3% | 22 | 0.2% | 20 | 0.2% | 26 | 0.3% | 10 | 0.1% | 8 | 0.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 1,710 | 17.3% | 1,429 | 14.4% | 9,888 | 20,356 | 48.6% |
| Coconino | 6,578 | 37.4% | 7,650 | 43.5% | 1,255 | 7.1% | 527 | 3.0% | 94 | 0.5% | 64 | 0.4% | 16 | 0.1% | 23 | 0.1% | 17 | 0.1% | 13 | 0.1% | 9 | 0.1% | 5 | 0.0% | 1,354 | 7.7% | –1,072 | –6.1% | 17,605 | 35,901 | 49.0% |
| Gila | 2,041 | 47.8% | 928 | 21.7% | 192 | 4.5% | 181 | 4.2% | 37 | 0.9% | 25 | 0.6% | 10 | 0.2% | 24 | 0.6% | 8 | 0.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 11 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.1% | 807 | 18.9% | 1,113 | 26.1% | 4,269 | 8,845 | 48.3% |
| Graham | 774 | 46.2% | 420 | 25.0% | 70 | 4.2% | 44 | 2.6% | 17 | 1.0% | 14 | 0.8% | 8 | 0.5% | 5 | 0.3% | 10 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 313 | 18.7% | 354 | 21.1% | 1,677 | 5,082 | 33.0% |
| Greenlee | 316 | 45.0% | 138 | 19.6% | 25 | 3.6% | 30 | 4.3% | 14 | 2.0% | 6 | 0.9% | 4 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1% | 4 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1% | 161 | 22.9% | 178 | 25.3% | 703 | 1,756 | 40.0% |
| La Paz | 323 | 44.8% | 193 | 26.8% | 29 | 4.0% | 21 | 2.9% | 6 | 0.8% | 6 | 0.8% | 5 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.3% | 129 | 17.9% | 130 | 18.0% | 721 | 2,282 | 31.6% |
| Maricopa | 153,707 | 42.9% | 120,379 | 33.6% | 20,584 | 5.7% | 15,346 | 4.3% | 1,620 | 0.4% | 1,109 | 0.3% | 345 | 0.1% | 307 | 0.1% | 297 | 0.1% | 121 | 0.0% | 99 | 0.0% | 92 | 0.0% | 44,384 | 12.4% | 33,328 | 9.3% | 358,390 | 732,376 | 48.9% |
| Mohave | 4,450 | 47.4% | 2,142 | 22.8% | 432 | 4.6% | 493 | 5.3% | 64 | 0.7% | 38 | 0.4% | 7 | 0.1% | 18 | 0.2% | 16 | 0.2% | 7 | 0.1% | 7 | 0.1% | 5 | 0.4% | 1,701 | 18.1% | 2,308 | 24.6% | 9,380 | 20,872 | 44.9% |
| Navajo | 3,585 | 44.3% | 2,617 | 32.8% | 316 | 3.9% | 193 | 2.4% | 54 | 0.7% | 59 | 0.7% | 14 | 0.2% | 25 | 0.3% | 18 | 0.2% | 11 | 0.1% | 14 | 0.2% | 10 | 0.1% | 1,169 | 14.5% | 968 | 12.0% | 8,085 | 25,215 | 32.1% |
| Pima | 60,622 | 45.3% | 42,954 | 32.1% | 8,602 | 6.4% | 4,907 | 3.7% | 613 | 0.5% | 306 | 0.2% | 149 | 0.1% | 105 | 0.1% | 88 | 0.1% | 32 | 0.0% | 20 | 0.0% | 33 | 0.0% | 15,378 | 11.5% | 17,668 | 13.2% | 133,809 | 237,568 | 56.3% |
| Pinal | 12,450 | 48.4% | 6,658 | 25.9% | 1,165 | 4.5% | 1,030 | 4.0% | 148 | 0.6% | 106 | 0.4% | 39 | 0.2% | 33 | 0.1% | 45 | 0.2% | 6 | 0.0% | 12 | 0.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 4,032 | 15.7% | 5,792 | 22.5% | 25,727 | 60,034 | 42.9% |
| Santa Cruz | 1,876 | 40.6% | 1,547 | 33.5% | 194 | 4.2% | 131 | 2.8% | 15 | 0.3% | 18 | 0.4% | 22 | 0.5% | 12 | 0.3% | 25 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 6 | 0.1% | 775 | 16.8% | 329 | 7.1% | 4,623 | 13,552 | 34.1% |
| Yavapai | 10,317 | 47.9% | 5,717 | 26.5% | 1,355 | 6.3% | 1,015 | 4.7% | 129 | 0.6% | 56 | 0.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 42 | 0.2% | 5 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 2,891 | 13.4% | 4,600 | 21.4% | 21,543 | 31,856 | 67.6% |
| Yuma | 3,775 | 38.1% | 3,896 | 39.3% | 388 | 3.9% | 341 | 3.4% | 62 | 0.6% | 44 | 0.4% | 88 | 0.9% | 25 | 0.3% | 41 | 0.4% | 11 | 0.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 8 | 0.1% | 1,224 | 12.4% | –121 | –1.2% | 9,907 | 31,914 | 31.0% |
| Totals | 268,029 | 43.7% | 200,456 | 32.7% | 35,537 | 5.8% | 24,868 | 4.1% | 3,014 | 0.5% | 1,921 | 0.3% | 754 | 0.1% | 668 | 0.1% | 628 | 0.1% | 242 | 0.0% | 208 | 0.0% | 184 | 0.0% | 76,846 | 12.5% | 67,573 | 11.0% | 613,355 | 1,256,343 | 48.8% |
By congressional district
| Congressional district[10] | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) |
Tulsi Gabbard | Andrew Yang (withdrawn) |
Julián Castro (withdrawn) |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) |
Rocky De La Fuente | Deval Patrick (withdrawn) |
Henry Hewes | Michael A. Ellinger | Others[lower-alpha 24][lower-alpha 23] | Margin | Total votes cast | Eligible voters | Voter turnout | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||||
| 1st | 32,749 | 45.8% | 22,336 | 31.2% | 3,776 | 5.3% | 2,472 | 3.5% | 432 | 0.6% | 302 | 0.4% | 107 | 0.2% | 119 | 0.2% | 117 | 0.2% | 53 | 0.1% | 55 | 0.1% | 33 | 0.1% | 8,954 | 12.5% | 10,413 | 14.6% | 71,505 | 167,908 | 42.6% |
| 2nd | 43,970 | 45.9% | 28,927 | 30.2% | 6,741 | 7.0% | 3,814 | 4.0% | 479 | 0.5% | 240 | 0.3% | 82 | 0.1% | 88 | 0.1% | 72 | 0.1% | 30 | 0.0% | 19 | 0.0% | 18 | 0.0% | 11,238 | 11.7% | 15,043 | 15.7% | 95,718 | 160,428 | 59.7% |
| 3rd | 23,744 | 38.7% | 24,766 | 40.4% | 2,724 | 4.4% | 1,595 | 2.6% | 292 | 0.5% | 180 | 0.3% | 222 | 0.4% | 72 | 0.1% | 115 | 0.2% | 34 | 0.1% | 17 | 0.0% | 31 | 0.1% | 7,505 | 12.2% | −1,022 | −1.7% | 61,297 | 158,635 | 38.6% |
| 4th | 22,338 | 47.4% | 11,925 | 25.3% | 2,550 | 5.4% | 2,298 | 4.9% | 293 | 0.6% | 164 | 0.4% | 42 | 0.1% | 100 | 0.2% | 61 | 0.1% | 20 | 0.0% | 31 | 0.1% | 15 | 0.0% | 7,291 | 15.5% | 10,413 | 22.1% | 47,128 | 90,296 | 52.2% |
| 5th | 27,851 | 44.3% | 19,636 | 31.3% | 3,721 | 5.9% | 3,020 | 4.8% | 302 | 0.5% | 210 | 0.3% | 36 | 0.1% | 58 | 0.1% | 35 | 0.1% | 8 | 0.0% | 13 | 0.0% | 13 | 0.0% | 7,920 | 12.6% | 8,215 | 13.1% | 62,823 | 121,006 | 51.9% |
| 6th | 34,295 | 47.4% | 19,878 | 27.5% | 4,240 | 5.9% | 3,570 | 4.9% | 347 | 0.5% | 156 | 0.2% | 33 | 0.1% | 57 | 0.1% | 34 | 0.1% | 20 | 0.0% | 15 | 0.0% | 10 | 0.0% | 9,676 | 13.4% | 14,417 | 19.9% | 72,331 | 129,893 | 55.7% |
| 7th | 19,789 | 35.6% | 24,701 | 44.4% | 2,676 | 4.8% | 1,572 | 2.8% | 182 | 0.3% | 191 | 0.3% | 124 | 0.2% | 42 | 0.1% | 77 | 0.1% | 27 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.0% | 23 | 0.0% | 6,202 | 11.2% | −4,912 | −8.8% | 55,617 | 148,509 | 37.5% |
| 8th | 30,594 | 46.8% | 17,537 | 26.8% | 3,420 | 5.2% | 3,098 | 4.7% | 334 | 0.5% | 206 | 0.3% | 59 | 0.1% | 74 | 0.1% | 59 | 0.1% | 22 | 0.0% | 28 | 0.0% | 21 | 0.0% | 9,985 | 15.3% | 13,057 | 20.0% | 65,437 | 123,996 | 52.8% |
| 9th | 32,699 | 40.1% | 30,750 | 37.7% | 5,689 | 7.0% | 3,429 | 4.2% | 353 | 0.4% | 272 | 0.3% | 49 | 0.1% | 58 | 0.1% | 58 | 0.1% | 28 | 0.0% | 19 | 0.0% | 20 | 0.0% | 8,075 | 9.9% | 1,949 | 2.4% | 81,499 | 155,672 | 52.4% |
| Totals | 268,029 | 43.7% | 200,456 | 32.7% | 35,537 | 5.8% | 24,868 | 4.1% | 3,014 | 0.5% | 1,921 | 0.3% | 754 | 0.1% | 668 | 0.1% | 628 | 0.1% | 242 | 0.0% | 208 | 0.0% | 184 | 0.0% | 76,846 | 12.5% | 67,573 | 11.0% | 613,355 | 1,256,343 | 48.8% |
Analysis
Arizona was a hotly contested state throughout both the primary and general election seasons due to its rapidly diversifying electorate. A high concentration of Hispanic and Latino voters as well as an intense swing to the left in suburban areas strengthened Democratic support while drawing new divides in the Democratic Party.[4] In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders by a 14.9% margin;[13] despite Sanders being trailing Biden significantly nationwide, he actually improved on his performance in Arizona in 2020, losing it by an 11.0% margin.[10] This improvement was mostly attributable to improvements among Hispanic and Latino voters: Sanders performed well among that demographic throughout the primary as opposed to 2016, when Clinton handily carried regions with high densities of Hispanic voters.[14] Per CNN exit polls,[2] Biden won Hispanic voters 45-44 compared to white voters, who he won 51-32. Sanders won Yuma County, where 64.6% of the population are Hispanic or Latino, as well as Arizona's 3rd and 7th congressional districts; the former, home to Tucson, Yuma, and most of the southern border, is 65.1% Hispanic,[15] while the latter, composing much of inner Phoenix, is 64.0% Hispanic.[16] Nonetheless, Biden's performance represented a significant improvement among voters of these demographics from earlier in the primary,[14] which was compounded by a strong performance in the state's suburbs. He won Maricopa County, which holds Phoenix and 61.6% of the population, by 33,328 votes,[10] largely due to the Phoenix suburbs, which have been reliably Republican since the 1950s but have recently shifted to the left.[4] He also won Pima County, the second largest county and home to Tucson, by 17,668 votes.[10]
The results of the primary would be reflected in the general election: Biden would end up winning Arizona by 10,457 votes, the first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He'd also become the first to win crucial Maricopa County since Truman. His performance in predominantly-Hispanic areas in urban areas and along the southern border would also decline compared to 2016, though would be supplemented by a raw increase in voter turnout.[17]
Notes
- originally 11 unpledged delegates
- Warren withdrew on March 5, 2020, twelve days before the primary. Absentee and early voting had already occurred.
- Candidate withdrew before Super Tuesday during early voting.
- Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday during early voting.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
- FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 18%
- Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 7%
- Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 7%
- Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; "Other" with <1%
- In a two-person race
- Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 5%
- "Another Candidate" with 4%
- Booker, Castro and Klobuchar with 2%; Bennet, Gabbard, O'Rourke and Steyer with 1%; Delaney with 0%; Bullock and Williamson with no voters; other with 7%
- Gabbard, Klobuchar and O'Rourke with 2%; Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
- Klobuchar with 1%; Booker, Gabbard and O'Rourke with 0%; others with 0%
- O'Rourke with 3%; Booker, Castro, Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; Steyer with 0%
- O'Rourke with 4%; Castro, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; someone else with 1%
- Booker, Castro, Delaney, and O'Rourke with 2%; Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee and Klobuchar with 0%
- Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer had formally withdrawn and were not counted, but those ballots were included in the overall results of cast ballots.[9]
- Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[12]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[10]
- Calculated by subtracting the totals of all reported candidates from the total votes reported.
- Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[12]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[10]
References
- "State of Arizona Official Canvass 2020 Presidential Preference Election – Mar 17, 2020" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 19, 2020. Retrieved March 31, 2021.
- "Arizona Primary Polls". CNN. Archived from the original on February 28, 2020. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- "County Population Totals: 2010-2019". United States Census Bureau. Archived from the original on April 18, 2019. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- Savicki, Drew (October 5, 2020). "The Road to 270: Arizona". 270toWin. Archived from the original on October 8, 2020. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- "Early Voting Sites". Pima County Recorder. Archived from the original on October 5, 2018. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
- "Democratic Presidential Preference Election – Vote Centers" (PDF). Maricopa County Recorder. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 20, 2020.
- "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Archived from the original on July 14, 2017. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
- "Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses". The Green Papers. November 24, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2022.
- "2020 Presidential Preference Election – President of the United States (DEM)". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved April 3, 2022.
- "State of Arizona Official Canvass: 2020 Presidential Preference Election – Mar 17, 2020" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
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